No. PSA 9 Base Set holo cards have not beaten the broader Pokémon market since 2022. While the overall Pokémon card market has grown 3,261% over the past twenty years and achieved a 46% year-over-year increase from 2024 to 2025, PSA 9 copies of identical Base Set classics have remained relatively flat during this same period.
This underperformance is particularly striking when measured against PSA 10 graded versions of the same cards, which have gained substantial ground. Consider a concrete example: a PSA 9 Base Set Charizard and a PSA 10 Charizard from the same print run show a 50–70% price premium for the higher grade. While PSA 10 copies appreciated meaningfully from 2022 onward, the PSA 9 versions of these high-value cards essentially stalled. This grade-based divergence represents the central finding—PSA 9 cards didn’t just underperform the market; they significantly underperformed their higher-graded counterparts within the same product category.
Table of Contents
- How Have PSA 9 Base Set Holo Cards Performed Since 2022?
- The Grade Gap: Why PSA 10 Substantially Outpaced PSA 9
- Base Set Classics in Today’s Market
- Comparing PSA 9 Performance to Broader Market Gains
- Why PSA 9 Graded Cards Underperformed Their Potential
- The 2024–2025 Recovery: Who Really Benefited
- What’s Next for PSA 9 Base Set Cards
- Conclusion
How Have PSA 9 Base Set Holo Cards Performed Since 2022?
From 2022 to 2026, psa 9 Base Set holo cards have been largely stagnant. Market data shows that while the broader Pokémon collectibles space experienced a 46% annual increase in value from 2024 to 2025 alone—substantially outpacing the S&P 500’s 12% return—PSA 9 graded Base Set classics remained stable with only slight increases. The recovery that began in 2024, when vintage cards in the PSA 9–10 range resumed their upward trajectory after the 2022–2023 corrections, disproportionately benefited PSA 10 copies. The retail market’s explosive growth during this period amplifies the missed opportunity for PSA 9 investors.
Walmart Marketplace saw a 200% increase in trading card sales between 2024 and 2025, while Target reported nearly a 70% increase in TCG sales in 2025 alone. Yet within this booming market, PSA 9 cards failed to capture proportional gains. The grade distinction became the primary driver of returns, not overall market momentum. This suggests that the supply-demand dynamics favored higher certifications and that buyers increasingly prioritized PSA 10 stock when allocating capital.
The Grade Gap: Why PSA 10 Substantially Outpaced PSA 9
The price differential between PSA 9 and PSA 10 versions of identical cards is not merely cosmetic—it is a fundamental valuation gap. High-value Base set holos carry a 50–70% premium for PSA 10 over PSA 9. This premium has widened, not narrowed, since 2022, reflecting a market preference for investment-grade and collectible-grade cards. When PSA 10 cards appreciated significantly during the 2024–2025 upswing, PSA 9 versions of the same titles did not follow proportionally.
This grade disparity reflects both aesthetic and certification factors. A PSA 9 card displays visible wear, edge wear, or corner imperfections that collectors and investors consciously avoid in competitive purchases. In the upper-tier market, where six-figure and seven-figure cards are regularly traded, the psychological threshold between “nine” and “ten” is decisive. Sellers and auction houses have learned to price PSA 9 copies with realistic caution, while PSA 10 inventory commands premiums that accelerate during bull markets. The 2024–2025 recovery demonstrated this starkly: PSA 10 Base Set holos resumed their upward trajectory, while their PSA 9 equivalents remained essentially stable, indicating that buyer demand concentrated on the highest-quality available stock.
Base Set Classics in Today’s Market
Base Set classics remain stable with slight increases as of March 2026, according to recent market assessments. However, this general stability masks the performance divergence within the grade spectrum. The iconic cards—Charizard, Blastoise, and Venusaur—are the primary drivers of market attention, and within those listings, the gap between PSA 9 and PSA 10 pricing is most pronounced. A Base set charizard in PSA 9 condition has seen minimal upward movement since 2022, trading in a narrow range despite the broader market’s unprecedented gains.
The “slight increases” observed at the PSA 9 level appear to be primarily attributable to inflation in base material costs and modest scarcity adjustments rather than genuine appreciation driven by collector demand. Dealers and high-volume sellers have largely reallocated their purchasing focus toward PSA 10 stock, reserve listings, and lower-grade bulk inventory that serves the casual market segment. PSA 9 Base Set cards occupy an awkward middle position: too expensive and too worn for casual players seeking affordable nostalgia, and insufficiently pristine for serious collectors seeking investment-grade holdings. This positioning has created a stagnation zone.
Comparing PSA 9 Performance to Broader Market Gains
The contrast between PSA 9 performance and the broader market’s gains is stark. The Pokémon card market expanded 3,261% over twenty years, with 46% year-over-year growth from 2024 to 2025. Retail channels like Walmart and Target reported growth of 70–200% during the same period. Against this backdrop, PSA 9 Base Set holos achieved minimal returns—essentially flat performance with only marginal upside.
An investor who allocated capital to PSA 9 Base Set Charizards in 2022 would have experienced near-zero appreciation over four years, while a comparable allocation to PSA 10 copies of the same card would have generated significant returns. This is not a minor distinction; it represents the difference between wealth preservation and wealth creation. The broader market data indicates that Pokémon collectibles as an asset class outpaced traditional equity markets, but only for holders of higher-quality inventory. PSA 9 buyers missed this bull run entirely, a cautionary lesson for grade selection in vintage collectibles.
Why PSA 9 Graded Cards Underperformed Their Potential
Several factors explain PSA 9 underperformance. First, the collectibles market has experienced a sustained shift toward higher grades, driven by serious collectors, institutional buyers, and hedge funds allocating to non-traditional assets. PSA 9 cards lack the prestige and rarity premium that PSA 10 commands. Second, the 50–70% price spread between PSA 9 and PSA 10 creates a substantial arbitrage opportunity for upgraded copies or fresh PSA 10 discoveries from sealed collections, reducing the relative demand for already-graded PSA 9 stock.
Third, PSA 9 cards fall within a problematic valuation window: they are expensive enough to require serious capital deployment, yet imperfect enough to attract risk-averse buyers. Collectors in the five-figure and six-figure spending range select PSA 10, while budget-conscious buyers opt for PSA 8 or raw copies at lower entry points. This leaves PSA 9 to serve primarily as a stepping-stone grade, acquired temporarily during resale sequences rather than held as a final destination investment. The market’s forward momentum—driven by retail growth, celebrity collecting, and speculative interest—bypassed PSA 9 cards in favor of higher-quality inventory.
The 2024–2025 Recovery: Who Really Benefited
When the Pokémon card market rebounded beginning in 2024, vintage cards in PSA 9–10 range did resume their upward trajectory after the 2022–2023 corrections. However, the lion’s share of appreciation accrued to PSA 10 holdings. Market participants who held PSA 10 Base Set classics experienced meaningful gains. Those holding PSA 9 copies realized modest stability, with “slight increases” more attributable to general inflation than market-driven demand.
The recovery phase revealed that seller behavior had fundamentally shifted. High-volume dealers, auction houses, and institutional market-makers prioritized PSA 10 inventory as prices climbed. PSA 9 cards were repriced upward tactically but not aggressively, reflecting the market’s clearer-than-ever preference for the highest certified grades. A PSA 9 Blastoise purchased in 2022 at a bottom-market price would have appreciated perhaps 5–10% by mid-2026, whereas a PSA 10 equivalent would have doubled or tripled.
What’s Next for PSA 9 Base Set Cards
Looking forward, PSA 9 Base Set cards face a structural headwind: as the market matures and wealth concentrates in fewer hands, buyer preferences will continue to cluster around PSA 10 and Gem Mint inventory. The 50–70% grade premium is unlikely to compress; if anything, it may widen as institutional collectors and museums prioritize the finest examples. For PSA 9 holders, the forward outlook is one of stability rather than appreciation.
These cards will retain their utility as portfolio fills, trade fodder, and inventory for dealers serving the mass market, but they are unlikely to deliver outsized returns relative to broader market trends. New collectors entering the Pokémon card space in 2026 are likely to learn this lesson quickly: save longer and buy PSA 10, or accept that PSA 9 positions carry near-zero appreciation potential. The market has spoken clearly through price divergence and relative flatness of PSA 9 performance.
Conclusion
PSA 9 Base Set holo cards have decisively underperformed the broader Pokémon market since 2022. While the overall collectibles category experienced 3,261% cumulative growth, 46% annual gains, and explosive retail expansion, PSA 9 copies of the classic Base Set lineup remained essentially flat, appreciating marginally if at all. The root cause is clear: a grade-driven market that has concentrated wealth and demand in PSA 10 and higher inventory, while relegating PSA 9 to a stagnant middle position.
For buyers evaluating Base Set holo cards today, the historical data is unambiguous. PSA 9 represents poor capital allocation in a market that has proven it prefers higher grades. Future investors in vintage Pokémon cards should either target PSA 10 quality or accept that PSA 9 purchases serve a portfolio-stability function rather than an appreciation function. The market’s performance divergence over the past four years has become a cautionary template: grade selection determines returns far more reliably than product selection or market timing.
