A CGC to PSA crossover is worth it only when the price gap between the two slabs is big enough that a realistic chance of getting the grade covers a fee PSA keeps whether the card crosses or not. On a vintage Base Set Charizard in a CGC Gem Mint 10, the gap was so large in 2026 sales that the break-even odds come out under two percent; on the Scarlet & Violet 151 Charizard ex, the CGC 10 actually sold for more than the PSA 10, so there was nothing to gain.
As of October 23, 2026: PSA, CGC and the other graders keep their crossover success figures to themselves, which makes every chance on this page our estimate from population reports, shown with its working. The lowest-priced PSA level still taking orders is Standard, $59.99 a card, because the Value tiers are paused, a failed crossover is billed in full, and the Goldin prices below are single sales that include a 22% buyer’s premium.
The break-even rule for a CGC to PSA crossover
Strip a crossover down and it is a bet with two outcomes. If PSA agrees the card meets your minimum grade, PSA cracks the CGC slab, puts the card in a PSA holder and you collect the price gap minus the fee. If PSA disagrees, the card comes home in its CGC holder and you are out the fee. PSA spells out both halves on its crossover page: “Full grading fee is charged even if item does not meet minimum grade.”
That gives a simple threshold. Call the fee you pay on a miss Fmiss and your net gain on a pass G (gap minus the fee on a pass). The chance at which the bet breaks even is Fmiss ÷ (G + Fmiss). If you think your card’s real chance is above that number, the expected value is positive; below it, you are paying PSA for an opinion.
Three things move the threshold more than collectors expect:
- The fee is not fixed. PSA prices by declared value. When a slab proves more valuable than the insured ceiling of the level you chose, the FAQ is explicit: “PSA will upgrade the service level for that item (not your entire order).” A card that crosses into a much pricier holder can therefore cost more to grade than the same card that fails. That is our reading of PSA’s rule applied to crossovers; PSA does not publish a crossover-specific example.
- The gap is one sale against one sale. Goldin’s figures swing by thousands between auctions, so a gap measured from two lots is a rough guide, not a market rate.
- Seller costs are left out. We work in winning bids (the hammer price, before Goldin adds its premium) because that is closer to what a consignor’s sale is based on. Goldin’s seller-side fees, shipping and insurance are not counted here, and each of them shrinks the gain.
What PSA charges for a crossover in October 2026
PSA charges the grading price of the service level you pick, and the level is set by the card’s value. Here is the price list as we read it on October 23, 2026. The Value tiers have been paused since June, and PSA says the Minimum Grade option that a crossover depends on “is only available on select service levels” without naming which. Check before you assume Standard accepts a crossover.
| Card value insured up to | PSA service level | Price per card | Turnaround PSA estimates (business days) |
|---|---|---|---|
| $1,000 | Standard | $59.99 | 90-100 |
| $1,500 | Priority | $79.99 | 70-80 |
| $2,500 | Express | $199.00 | 20-30 |
| $5,000 | Super Express | $349.00 | 10-15 |
| $10,000 | Premier | $599.00 | 7-10 |
| $25,000 | Premium 1 | $999.00 | no estimate shown |
| $50,000 | Premium 2 | $1,999.00 | no estimate shown |
Source: PSA’s trading card grading page, read October 23, 2026. Higher Premium tiers exist for six-figure cards. The full breakdown of PSA grading costs in 2026 covers the paused Value tiers and the September renaming of Regular to Priority.
Example 1: Base Set Charizard, CGC Gem Mint 10 to PSA 10
This is the crossover people daydream about. Goldin sold a Base Set Unlimited Charizard in a CGC Gem Mint 10 for $5,616 all-in, a winning bid of $4,603, in an auction ending 8/09/26. A PSA 10 copy went for $34,770 all-in, $28,500 winning bid, in an auction ending 3/08/26. Five months apart, so treat the gap as approximate.
On the winning bids the gap is $23,897. If the card crosses, a slab worth around $28,500 sits in Premium 2 ($1,999.00, insured to $50,000), leaving a net gain of $21,898. If it fails, the card is still a CGC 10 worth roughly $4,603, which falls in Super Express at $349.00. Our worked break-even: $349.00 ÷ ($21,898 + $349.00) = 1.57%.
Now the odds side. On CGC’s live population report, 285 Base Unlimited Charizards sit at Gem Mint 10, with 12 above them at Pristine and Perfect. Ranked by grade, those Gem Mint 10s are roughly the top 0.1% to 2.0% of CGC’s numerically graded copies. On PSA’s March 2026 snapshot, PSA 10s are 487 copies, the top 0.5% of its graded population. Our estimate of the share of the CGC Gem Mint 10 band that lands at PSA 10 when you line the two reports up by percentile is 22.8%.
That 22.8% is not a crossover pass rate. It assumes PSA and CGC see the same mix of cards, which they do not. But it sits far above 1.57%, so on these numbers a CGC 10 Base Charizard that looks strong under a loupe is the clearest case of a crossover with room to pay. The Base Set Unlimited Charizard price history shows how much the PSA 10 figure moves from sale to sale.
Example 2: the same Charizard, CGC 8.5 to PSA 9 versus PSA 8
Here the price gap and the population data point in opposite directions, which is why this example matters. On the same Goldin evening, a CGC NM/Mint+ 8.5 Base Charizard hammered at $662 (8/16/26) and a PSA 9 hammered at $2,775 a couple of minutes later.
A $2,113 gap looks irresistible. A PSA 9 worth that much belongs in Super Express, so the net if it crosses is $1,764; a failure leaves a card worth about $662, which fits Standard at $59.99. Break-even: 3.29%.
The population data is unkind. CGC 8.5s on this card occupy the band from the top 9.9% to the top 21.2% of CGC’s graded copies. On PSA, everything at PSA 9 or better is only the top 9.5%, which ends before the CGC 8.5 band even starts; PSA 8s and the thin PSA 8.5 layer fill it, with PSA 8 or better reaching down to the top 26.6%. On a straight percentile line-up, the share of CGC 8.5s that land at PSA 9 is effectively zero. The detailed version of this grade pair is in our CGC 8.5 to PSA 9 crossover odds breakdown.
Lower the minimum grade to PSA 8 and the math flips into something more ordinary. A PSA 8 hammered at $1,400 (9/13/26). The gap over the CGC 8.5 is $738; a $1,400 slab fits Priority at $79.99, so the net on a pass is $658.01 and the break-even is 8.36%. The percentile line-up puts the whole CGC 8.5 band at PSA 8 or better. That is a population estimate, not a promise, but it is a far more defensible bet than chasing the 9.
Example 3: Van Gogh Pikachu, CGC Gem Mint 10 to PSA 10
Modern cards behave differently because both companies hand out 10s far more often. In a single Goldin auction ending 8/03/26, the Van Gogh Pikachu with Grey Felt Hat promo sold in a CGC Gem Mint 10 at a $1,300 winning bid and in a PSA 10 at $2,500.
The gap is $1,200. A PSA 10 at that price sits right at Express’s $2,500 insured limit, so a pass costs $199.00 and nets $1,001; a miss leaves a $1,300 card in Priority at $79.99. Break-even: 7.40%. If PSA valued the slab on the all-in $3,050 instead, the upgrade would push it into Super Express and the net would shrink.
CGC’s report has 799 Pristine 10s above 3,176 Gem Mint 10s on this promo, and PSA’s January 2026 snapshot shows PSA 10s at 46,122 copies, which is almost half of everything PSA graded on the card. Lining up percentiles, our estimate is that 80.1% of the CGC Gem Mint 10 band falls inside PSA’s 10 band. Same caveat: it is a population comparison, not a measured rate.
Example 4: 151 Charizard ex, where the crossover had nothing to win
The CGC Gem Mint 10 of the 151 Special Illustration Rare Charizard ex hammered at $1,210 on 2/08/26, and a PSA 10 hammered at $950 a week later. That is $260 in CGC’s favor. No break-even exists when the gap is negative: a pass would have swapped a higher-selling slab for a lower-selling one and charged a fee for it.
The percentile line-up says a CGC Gem Mint 10 of this card has a high chance of matching PSA 10 (94.8% of the band, by our estimate). High odds of a pointless result are still pointless. One pair of sales cannot prove the CGC slab is worth more in general, and the next pair could flip, which is exactly why you check the recent sales before paying for a crossover. Our CGC vs PSA price difference roundup puts all eight same-grade pairs side by side.
All four examples in one table
| Crossover attempt | Gap (winning bids) | Fee on a miss | Break-even chance | Population-percentile estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base Charizard CGC Gem Mint 10 to PSA 10 | $23,897 | $349.00 | 1.57% | 22.8% of the band at PSA 10 |
| Base Charizard CGC 8.5 to PSA 9 | $2,113 | $59.99 | 3.29% | Band sits below PSA 9 |
| Base Charizard CGC 8.5 to PSA 8 | $738 | $59.99 | 8.36% | Whole band at PSA 8 or better |
| Van Gogh Pikachu CGC Gem Mint 10 to PSA 10 | $1,200 | $79.99 | 7.40% | 80.1% of the band at PSA 10 |
| 151 Charizard ex CGC Gem Mint 10 to PSA 10 | CGC sold $260 higher | n/a | None | 94.8% of the band at PSA 10 |
Gaps and fees are our worked examples from the Goldin lots and PSA’s price list cited on this page; the estimates come from CGC’s live report and PSA’s archived population columns.
The same rule with example prices for a mid-value card
Most crossover candidates are not five-figure Charizards. Two hypothetical examples, with prices we chose for illustration rather than sales, show how the threshold behaves on cheaper slabs at PSA’s October 2026 rates.
- Example A: a CGC slab worth $500 whose PSA twin sells for $800. Both values fit Standard ($59.99, insured to $1,000), so a pass nets $240.01 on a $300 gap and a miss costs $59.99. Break-even: 20.0%.
- Example B: a CGC slab worth $1,000 whose PSA twin sells for $1,500. The miss stays in Standard, but a pass is upgraded to Priority ($79.99), so the $500 gap nets $420.01. Break-even: 12.5%.
The pattern is the useful part: the smaller the gap relative to the fee, the higher the chance you need, and on a card whose PSA premium is only a few hundred dollars the bar can sit well above the population estimate for anything but the strongest copies. Shipping both ways and seller fees push it higher still.
Why your real odds differ from the population estimate
The percentile method is the best public proxy, and it is still a proxy. These are the reasons we would not treat any figure above as your card’s chance.
- Pre-screening. Nobody crosses a random slab. Submitters pick the CGC copies they think are under-graded, so the pool PSA sees on crossover is better than the average CGC copy.
- Different submitter pools. Collectors chasing top prices have tended to send their best raw cards straight to PSA, while CGC’s mix on some vintage lines skews older and more worn. On the Base Charizard the share of 10s is higher at CGC than at PSA; on several modern cards it is the reverse. No one measures these mixes.
- Centering is only spelled out at the top. PSA 10 allows about “55/45 percent on the front, and 75/25 percent on the reverse”, and CGC’s Gem Mint 10 uses the same numbers, but CGC publishes no centering cutoffs for Pokemon below 10 while PSA 9 allows 60/40. A CGC 9.5 or 9 tells you nothing exact about where its centering sits.
- Snapshot dates differ. CGC counts were read live on October 23, 2026; PSA counts come from archived pages between April 2025 and March 2026.
How the minimum grade caps the downside
The minimum grade is what turns a crossover into a bounded bet. PSA requires one on every crossover form, and “If your item doesn’t meet the minimum grade, it is returned to you in the original holder.” Your worst case is the fee plus shipping, not a CGC 10 turned into a PSA 9. Setting the minimum too high is the most common way to pay for nothing; setting it too low risks a crossover that lands a grade you would not have chosen, which is what a failed crossover looks like from the other side.
CGC runs the same idea in the opposite direction and is stricter about it: it cracks a PSA, Beckett or SGC slab “only if CGC Cards believes that the card will receive a grade that is the same or higher”. If you are weighing cracking the slab yourself and submitting raw instead, the trade-offs are laid out in crossover vs crack and resubmit. For every grade pair in one place, start at the crossover grading hub.
Last, the buyer’s premium. Goldin lists its premium as 22% with a $19 minimum, and the all-in prices above include it. Using all-in figures instead of winning bids makes every gap about a fifth larger, which lowers the break-even a little but does not change which of the four examples clear it.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CGC to PSA crossover worth it?
Only when the price gap between the two slabs, multiplied by a realistic chance of the grade, is larger than the fee PSA keeps either way. On a vintage Base Set Charizard in CGC Gem Mint 10 the break-even was under two percent on 2026 Goldin sales; on the 151 Charizard ex the CGC 10 sold higher, so there was nothing to gain.
Does PSA charge if the crossover fails?
Yes. PSA states that the full grading fee is charged even if the card does not meet your minimum grade. The card comes back in its original CGC holder.
What are the odds a CGC card crosses over to PSA?
No grading company publishes crossover pass rates. Pokemon Pricing estimates odds by lining up CGC and PSA population reports by percentile, and the result depends heavily on the card: 22.8% of the CGC Gem Mint 10 band on Base Set Charizard against 80.1% on the Van Gogh Pikachu promo, by our estimate.
Which PSA tier do I need for a crossover?
The tier follows the card value, and PSA upgrades the tier after grading when the graded slab is valued above that ceiling. PSA also says the minimum grade option is only on select service levels without listing them, so confirm your tier allows a crossover before submitting.
Is a CGC 10 worth more than a PSA 10?
Usually not on vintage cards: a Base Set Charizard CGC Gem Mint 10 sold for about a sixth of a PSA 10 in 2026. On some modern cards a CGC 10 has sold higher, as the 151 Charizard ex did in February 2026. Check recent sales for your exact card.
Should I set a high or low minimum grade?
A minimum grade at the level that makes the gap worth the fee. A minimum above what the card is likely to get guarantees a paid rejection; one below what you would accept risks a crossover into a grade you did not want.
Sources
- PSA Crossover Service — PSA, read October 23, 2026
- Trading Card Grading services and prices — PSA, read October 23, 2026
- PSA frequently asked questions — PSA, read October 23, 2026
- PSA grading standards — PSA, read October 23, 2026
- CGC Grading services and fees — CGC Cards, read October 23, 2026
- About Goldin (buyer’s premium table) — Goldin, undated page, read October 23, 2026
- 1999 Pokemon Base Set Holo #4 Charizard – CGC GEM MINT 10 — Goldin (lot page), auction ending 8/09/26, read October 23, 2026
- 1999 Pokemon Base Set Holo #4 Charizard – PSA GEM MT 10 — Goldin (lot page), auction ending 3/08/26, read October 23, 2026
- 1999 Pokemon Base Set Holo #4 Charizard – CGC NM/MINT+ 8.5 — Goldin (lot page), auction ending 8/16/26, read October 23, 2026
- 1999 Pokemon Base Set Holo #4 Charizard – PSA MINT 9 — Goldin (lot page), auction ending 8/16/26, read October 23, 2026
- 1999 Pokemon Base Set Holo #4 Charizard – PSA NM-MT 8 — Goldin (lot page), auction ending 9/13/26, read October 23, 2026
- 2023 Pokemon x Van Gogh #085 Pikachu Grey Felt Hat – CGC GEM MINT 10 — Goldin (lot page), auction ending 8/03/26, read October 23, 2026
- 2023 Pokemon x Van Gogh #085 Pikachu Grey Felt Hat – PSA GEM MT 10 — Goldin (lot page), auction ending 8/03/26, read October 23, 2026
- 2023 Pokemon Scarlet & Violet 151 #199 Charizard ex – CGC GEM MINT 10 — Goldin (lot page), auction ending 2/08/26, read October 23, 2026
- 2023 Pokemon Scarlet & Violet 151 SIR #199 Charizard EX – PSA GEM MT 10 — Goldin (lot page), auction ending 2/15/26, read October 23, 2026
- CGC Cards Population Report: Base Set Unlimited — CGC Cards, read October 23, 2026
- PSA Auction Prices Realized: 1999 Pokemon Game Charizard-Holo (population columns) — PSA, archived by the Internet Archive, Wayback Machine copy from March 2026
- CGC Cards Population Report: Scarlet & Violet Black Star Promos — CGC Cards, read October 23, 2026
- PSA Auction Prices Realized: Pikachu With Grey Felt Hat (population columns) — PSA, archived by the Internet Archive, Wayback Machine copy from January 2026
- CGC Cards Population Report: Scarlet & Violet 151 — CGC Cards, read October 23, 2026
- PSA Auction Prices Realized: Charizard Ex #199 (population columns) — PSA, archived by the Internet Archive, Wayback Machine copy from April 2025
No grading company publishes crossover pass rates. Any crossover odds on this page are Pokemon Pricing’s estimate, labelled as one, built from the published grading standards and population reports on the dates shown. Fees, populations and sale prices change; check the grading company’s current price list before submitting. This article is collector information, not investment advice. Pokémon and all card names are trademarks of Nintendo, Creatures Inc. and GAME FREAK inc.; Pokemon Pricing is not affiliated with them or with any grading company.