There is no published pass rate for vintage CGC to PSA crossovers, and the population reports say the answer changes from one WOTC holo to the next. By our population-percentile estimate, a CGC 8.5 1st Edition Venusaur ranks almost entirely among PSA 9s, a CGC 8.5 Unlimited Mewtwo ranks with PSA 9s a bit over a third of the time, and a CGC 8.5 Unlimited Charizard does not reach PSA 9 territory at all.
As of October 23, 2026: PSA 10 makes up between 0.5% and 4.4% of numeric PSA grades on the four Base Set holos below (PSA counts from archived 2025 and 2026 pages). PSA’s cheapest open tier is $59.99 with its Value tiers paused, a failed cross still pays the full fee, and old CGC Gem Mint 9.5 labels now count as Gem Mint 10.
What vintage CGC to PSA crossover data exists
None of the graders release crossover outcomes, for vintage or anything else. PSA’s crossover page describes the process and the cost, not results: if PSA’s grade falls short of the floor you set, the slab is mailed back unopened and PSA still bills you. Forum tallies and grading-tool blogs circulate rates, but they disagree with each other and none of them is a controlled count.
What does exist is the population side. CGC’s report is public and was read live for this page. PSA’s per-card populations now sit behind a login, so we used PSA’s own price pages as archived by the Wayback Machine, which print each whole grade’s count and a running “pop higher” total. That gives full CGC and PSA ladders for four Wizards of the Coast holos: Unlimited Charizard and Mewtwo, and 1st Edition Blastoise and Venusaur. If you are new to reading these tables, the Torchic Gold Star population report explainer covers what each column means.
Our estimate: four WOTC holos, four different answers
This is Pokemon Pricing’s estimate, labelled as one. For each card we ranked every numerically graded copy at CGC and noted the slice each grade covers, then asked which PSA grades cover the same slice of PSA’s ranking. The share of a CGC grade’s slice that falls inside PSA’s higher grade is what we call the pop-implied chance. It is a comparison of two populations, not a measurement of any card.
| Card (PSA data as of) | CGC numeric slabs | CGC 8.5 slice | PSA 9-or-better slice | CGC 8.5 slice inside PSA 9+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unlimited Charizard 4/102 (Mar 2026) | 14,779 | 9.9% to 21.2% | top 9.5% | none |
| Unlimited Mewtwo 10/102 (Jun 2025) | 7,270 | 15.5% to 32.9% | top 22.0% | 37% |
| 1st Edition Blastoise 2/102 (Oct 2025) | 557 | 15.6% to 27.8% | top 22.5% | 56% |
| 1st Edition Venusaur 15/102 (Jul 2025) | 508 | 17.9% to 26.4% | top 26.4% | 99.8% |
The top of the scale tells the same story in a different key. CGC’s 10s (Perfect, Pristine and Gem Mint together) cover the best 2.0% of Unlimited Charizards, but PSA 10 covers only 0.5%, so about a quarter of that CGC slice, 26%, ranks inside PSA’s 10s. On 1st Edition Blastoise the share is 60% and on 1st Edition Venusaur 73%. On Unlimited Mewtwo the whole CGC 10 slice (2.4%) fits inside PSA’s 10s (2.6%), and even the next CGC grade down, Mint+ 9.5, overlaps PSA 10 for 18% of its slice.
So the common belief that a CGC number tends to match or undershoot what PSA would give is right for Blastoise and Venusaur at 8.5, half right for Mewtwo (most of its CGC 8.5 slice still sits on PSA 8), and wrong for Charizard. Charizard is the outlier, and the most likely reason is who sends it where: a far larger and better pre-sorted pool of Charizards goes to PSA. Our Charizard CGC to PSA crossover page breaks that card down grade by grade, including Shadowless and 1st Edition.
Assumptions that the estimate rests on
- Both companies graded a comparable mix of each card. They probably did not: PSA pools for valuable vintage tend to hold more hand-picked copies, and some CGC pools hold more bulk submissions.
- A crossover candidate is a random member of its grade. It is not. Collectors cross the copies they think are strong, so real pass rates for well-chosen cards should run above these figures, and below them for cards sent on hope.
- Counts are comparable across dates. CGC was read October 23, 2026; the PSA pages are archived snapshots from 2025 and 2026, as dated in the table.
- The small CGC counts hold still. CGC has only 557 numeric 1st Edition Blastoises and 508 Venusaurs, so a few dozen new slabs can move a slice by a point or two.
Why vintage PSA 10s are so scarce
Vintage holos have had more than two decades to pick up wear, and every copy faces the same centering lines. To earn a PSA 10 a card’s front image can be off by about 55/45 at most (75/25 behind), and a PSA 9 tolerates about 60/40. CGC’s Gem Mint 10 shares those two tolerances, yet below 10 CGC gives no centering figure for Pokemon at all; the 60/40 line in its 9 definition covers only sports and non-sports issues. That gap in published standards is one reason a vintage CGC 9.5 or 9 can be a coin toss at PSA.
| Card | CGC 10 of any kind | PSA 10 |
|---|---|---|
| Unlimited Charizard | 2.0% | 0.5% |
| Unlimited Mewtwo | 2.4% | 2.6% |
| 1st Edition Blastoise | 4.7% | 2.8% |
| 1st Edition Venusaur | 6.1% | 4.4% |
For scale, GemRate data reported by Sports Illustrated put PSA’s gem rate for all Pokemon cards graded in 2025 at approximately 50%, driven by modern cards pulled straight into sleeves. On these WOTC holos PSA 10 is a low single-digit share, and on three of the four CGC’s top tier is the wider one. A vintage crossover aimed at PSA 10 is therefore a bet on a small target. For context on how many of these holos exist at all, see how many Base Set holos were printed.
Old CGC labels on vintage slabs
A lot of vintage CGC plastic predates July 2023, when CGC Trading Cards and CSG became CGC Cards and the scale changed. CGC’s merger notice states “Cards previously graded Gem Mint 9.5 are exactly equivalent to Gem Mint 10 under the updated grading scale”. CGC also stopped assigning Perfect 10 and lists it as a retired grade that keeps its status. Because CGC files every older slab under today’s labels in its census, the 10 counts in our tables already fold in those pre-2023 Gem Mint 9.5s.
For crossover purposes, read the label before you pick a minimum grade. An old-label Gem Mint 9.5 Blastoise is competing for PSA 10 against the 55/45 rule; a new-label Mint+ 9.5 is one step lower and, on the Base Set cards above, ranks mostly with PSA 9s.
Goldin sales of vintage cards in different holders
Prices below are Goldin all-in figures, which include the buyer’s premium of 22% with a $19 minimum; hammer is in brackets. Each comparison is one sale against one sale, a few weeks or months apart, so they show direction, not a market rate.
| Card | Holder and grade | Sold | Auction end |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unlimited Charizard | CGC Gem Mint 10 | $4,964 ($4,003) | 2/15/26 |
| Unlimited Charizard | PSA 9 | $2,480 ($2,000) | 2/15/26 |
| 1st Edition Charizard | CGC Gem Mint 10 | $38,430 ($31,500) | 12/20/23 |
| 1st Edition Charizard | CGC 9 | $10,980 ($9,000) | 12/20/23 |
| 1st Edition Charizard | PSA 8 | $9,943 ($8,150) | 12/20/23 |
| 1st Edition Charizard | PSA 10 | $195,200 ($160,000) | 2/17/24 |
| Neo Revelation Shining Gyarados | CGC 8.5 | $1,513 ($1,240) | 5/31/26 |
| Neo Revelation Shining Gyarados | PSA 8 | $1,258 ($1,031) | 3/22/26 |
| Neo Revelation Shining Gyarados | BGS 9 | $1,287 ($1,055) | 8/21/25 |
In the same December 2023 Goldin sale a CGC 9 1st Edition Charizard outsold a PSA 8, and a CGC Gem Mint 10 Unlimited outsold a PSA 9 in the same February 2026 sale. The Neo-era Shining Gyarados went the same way, with the CGC 8.5 ahead of both the PSA 8 and a BGS 9. The 1st Edition CGC 10 sat far below the PSA 10 that sold two months later. On vintage, then, a crossover that drops a grade usually costs money, and one that lands at the PSA equivalent of the top tier is where the price jump lives. More Base Set prices by grade are on our Base Set price hub.
Does the PSA fee pay on a vintage cross? Three worked examples
These are our sums on PSA’s published prices (read October 23, 2026) and the average-price column on PSA’s archived pages for each card. We assume, generously, that your CGC 8.5 is worth only what a PSA 8 averaged, and ask how often the cross to PSA 9 must succeed before the fee is covered. Postage, insurance, marketplace commission and sales tax are not in these sums. The tier follows the PSA 9 value, because PSA prices by the card’s worth after grading.
| Card | PSA 9 avg vs PSA 8 avg | Gain if it crosses | PSA tier and fee | Break-even pass rate | Pop-implied (above) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unlimited Mewtwo (Jun 2025 page) | $162.69 vs $76.77 | $85.92 | Standard, $59.99 | 69.8% | 37% |
| 1st Edition Blastoise (Oct 2025 page) | $6,295.20 vs $2,725.80 | $3,569.40 | Premier, $599.00 | 16.8% | 56% |
| 1st Edition Venusaur (Jul 2025 page) | $3,020.43 vs $1,550.00 | $1,470.43 | Super Express, $349.00 | 23.7% | 99.8% |
The cheap card is the one where the fee bites. A Mewtwo cross has to work more than two times in three just to break even, well above the pop-implied figure, before counting the chance that the graders see your copy as an 8. The two 1st Edition cards are the reverse: the fee is a small fraction of the PSA 9 premium, so even a modest pass rate covers it. The 8.5-to-9 odds page applies this test to modern releases, and the crossover grading hub collects every grade pair.
WOTC cards with no PSA side to compare
Some vintage cards cannot be put through this method because we could not read a PSA population for them. Neo Genesis Lugia is the clearest example. CGC lists 1,328 numeric 1st Edition Lugias with 7.6% at a 10 and 30.0% at 9 or better, against 2,186 Unlimited Lugias with 1.6% at a 10 and 11.1% at 9 or better. Same card, same company, and the 1st Edition pool grades far higher, which is a reminder that submitter habits shape every population. With no matching PSA figures we give no crossover estimate for Lugia.
TAG is the other gap. Its live Base Set report shows 2 TAG 10s among 1,472 Unlimited Charizards and 3 among 476 Mewtwos, but TAG states that it does not run a crossover service or crack other companies’ slabs, and PSA does not list which holders it accepts for crossover.
Frequently Asked Questions
Do vintage CGC cards cross over to PSA at the same grade?
Sometimes, but it depends on the card, and no grader publishes the rate. On our population comparison, a CGC 8.5 1st Edition Venusaur ranks where PSA keeps its 9s, while an Unlimited Charizard at CGC 8.5 falls among PSA 8s.
Why are PSA 10s so rare on Base Set cards?
Old cards picked up wear and many were printed off-centre, and PSA 10 allows only about 55/45 front centering. In the population counts we used, PSA 10 is under one in twenty numeric grades for each of the four Base Set holos, against roughly half of all PSA Pokemon grades in 2025 according to GemRate figures reported by Sports Illustrated.
Is an old CGC 9.5 vintage card a 10?
A CGC Gem Mint 9.5 graded before CGC changed its scale in July 2023 is treated by CGC as a Gem Mint 10 today. Anything labelled Mint+ 9.5 sits one step below that.
How much does PSA charge to cross over a vintage card?
PSA bills its normal grading price for whichever tier fits the card’s value, pass or fail. On October 23, 2026 PSA’s lowest open tier was Standard at $59.99 for cards insured up to $1,000; the Value tiers were paused.
Can I cross a TAG-graded Base Set card into CGC or PSA through TAG?
No. TAG says it does not offer a crossover service and does not crack other companies’ slabs. Moving a card out of a TAG holder is a question for the receiving grader.
Is a CGC 8.5 vintage holo worth crossing to PSA?
Only the numbers for the specific card can say. On the PSA averages we used, the break-even pass rate for a CGC 8.5 to PSA 9 cross ranged from about one in six on 1st Edition Blastoise to about seven in ten on Unlimited Mewtwo, because the Standard fee eats most of a cheap card’s gain.
Sources
- Crossover Service — PSA, read October 23, 2026
- Trading Card Grading services and prices — PSA, read October 23, 2026
- Grading Standards — PSA, read October 23, 2026
- CGC Cards Grading Scale — CGC Cards, read October 23, 2026
- CGC Cards merger announcement — CGC Cards, read October 23, 2026
- Population Report: Evolving Skies (scale note) — CGC Cards, read October 23, 2026
- Population Report: Base Set Unlimited — CGC Cards, read October 23, 2026
- Population Report: Base Set 1st Edition — CGC Cards, read October 23, 2026
- Population Report: Neo Genesis 1st Edition — CGC Cards, read October 23, 2026
- Population Report: Neo Genesis Unlimited — CGC Cards, read October 23, 2026
- Auction Prices Realized: 1999 Pokemon Game Charizard-Holo (with population) — PSA, archived by the Internet Archive, Wayback Machine capture of March 2, 2026
- CardFacts: 1999 Nintendo Pokemon Game Mewtwo-Holo (with population) — PSA, archived by the Internet Archive, Wayback Machine capture of June 9, 2025
- Auction Prices Realized: 1999 Pokemon Game 1st Edition Blastoise-Holo (with population) — PSA, archived by the Internet Archive, Wayback Machine capture of October 21, 2025
- CardFacts: 1999 Pokemon Game Venusaur-Holo 1st Edition (with population) — PSA, archived by the Internet Archive, Wayback Machine capture of July 6, 2025
- Pokemon powers 2025, PSA’s biggest grading year in company history — Sports Illustrated Collectibles (reporting GemRate data), published Jan 4, 2026
- Does TAG offer a crossover/regrading service for other third-party slabs? — TAG Grading, read October 23, 2026
- TAG Population Report: 1999 WOTC Pokemon Base Set — TAG Grading, read October 23, 2026
- About Goldin (buyer’s premium) — Goldin, read October 23, 2026
- Goldin lot: Base Set Charizard CGC Gem Mint 10 — Goldin, lot page read October 23, 2026
- Goldin lot: Base Set Charizard PSA Mint 9 — Goldin, lot page read October 23, 2026
- Goldin lot: 1st Edition Charizard CGC Gem Mint 10 — Goldin, lot page read October 23, 2026
- Goldin lot: 1st Edition Charizard CGC Mint 9 — Goldin, lot page read October 23, 2026
- Goldin lot: 1st Edition Charizard PSA NM-MT 8 — Goldin, lot page read October 23, 2026
- Goldin lot: 1st Edition Charizard PSA Gem MT 10 — Goldin, lot page read October 23, 2026
- Goldin lot: Neo Revelation Shining Gyarados CGC NM/Mint+ 8.5 — Goldin, lot page read October 23, 2026
- Goldin lot: Neo Revelation Shining Gyarados PSA NM-MT 8 — Goldin, lot page read October 23, 2026
- Goldin lot: Neo Revelation Shining Gyarados BGS Mint 9 — Goldin, lot page read October 23, 2026
No grading company publishes crossover pass rates. Any crossover odds on this page are Pokemon Pricing’s estimate, labelled as one, built from the published grading standards and population reports on the dates shown. Fees, populations and sale prices change; check the grading company’s current price list before submitting. This article is collector information, not investment advice. Pokémon and all card names are trademarks of Nintendo, Creatures Inc. and GAME FREAK inc.; Pokemon Pricing is not affiliated with them or with any grading company.