Yes, cracking a BGS 9 Mewtwo to submit to SGC carries substantial risk, and in most cases, it’s not a sound financial decision. The primary danger comes from two factors: physical damage during the cracking process itself, and the possibility that SGC will grade the card lower than the BGS 9 you already own. A real-world example illustrates this—a collector who cracked a BGS 9 Base Set Mewtwo expecting a 9.5 or 10 from SGC ended up with an SGC 8, destroying thousands of dollars in value in the process. The card that was safely graded at 9 by BGS suddenly became worth significantly less after resubmission.
Before considering the crack, understand that BGS and SGC use different grading standards. A card that achieves a 9 from one company doesn’t guarantee the same grade from another. The centering, corner wear, edge wear, and surface quality are evaluated slightly differently between the two services. Unless you have a compelling reason to believe SGC will grade the card higher—and this is rarely the case for a card already at a 9—the risk of grade degradation outweighs any potential upside.
Table of Contents
- What Prompts Collectors to Crack and Resubmit?
- Grading Standards and Why BGS 9 Doesn’t Guarantee SGC 9
- Physical Risks of Cracking the Slab
- Financial Reality—Grade Downgrades and Slab Value Differences
- Historical Examples and Market Data on Regrading Outcomes
- When Regrading Might Make Sense
- The Future of Grading Standards and What It Means for Regrading
- Conclusion
- Frequently Asked Questions
What Prompts Collectors to Crack and Resubmit?
Collectors consider cracking a BGS 9 Mewtwo for a few specific reasons. The most common motivation is the belief that SGC’s grading standards are more lenient in certain categories, or that the card’s actual condition warrants a higher grade. Another reason is simply market preference—some collectors specifically want SGC slabs over BGS slabs, and they’re willing to take the risk to get their card into an SGC holder. Additionally, grading companies sometimes adjust their standards over time, leading collectors to think a re-grade might yield better results.
However, this optimism often overlooks the financial reality. Even if SGC grades the card the same (BGS 9 to SGC 9), you’ve paid another grading fee and risked damage for no gain. The card must grade higher to justify the expense and risk. For a BGS 9, the margin for error is razor-thin—you’d need to hit at least a 9.5 or 10 to come out ahead, and the probability of that happening is low when the card was already evaluated at 9 by a professional service.
Grading Standards and Why BGS 9 Doesn’t Guarantee SGC 9
BGS and sgc employ different evaluation criteria and have distinct grading philosophies. BGS is known for sometimes being stricter on centering and surface, while SGC has historically been considered slightly more generous with certain grades, though this reputation varies by era and card type. For a Mewtwo card from the Base Set or another vintage release, the differences matter significantly because both services have graded countless examples, creating an established record of how they evaluate each card. The limitation here is that you cannot predict with certainty what SGC will grade your specific card.
Even if you’ve seen ten other BGS 9 Mewtwos receive SGC 9s or higher, your card might have subtle characteristics—perhaps the centering is slightly off center in a way that SGC penalizes more heavily, or there’s minor surface wear that BGS’s imagery and lighting made less visible. These nuances compound when dealing with vintage cards that may have handling wear decades old. One warning: BGS 9s for desirable cards like Mewtwo often represent a sweet spot where the card is valuable but also realistic in grade. Pushing for a higher grade can feel justified emotionally but is rarely justified financially.
Physical Risks of Cracking the Slab
The mechanical process of cracking a BGS or any graded card slab carries real physical risk to the card itself. While professional cracking services exist and can minimize damage, they cannot eliminate it entirely. The card must be pried from the slab using tools—this creates flex in the card, potential for corner nicks, and a moment where the card is completely exposed and vulnerable to accidental damage. A specific example: during the cracking process, if the card catches on the slab edge or if too much pressure is applied to one corner, you can create or worsen corner wear instantly.
For a BGS 9, which likely already has some corner or edge wear that kept it from a 9.5, additional damage could drop it to an 8 or even lower. Beyond cracking, the handling between removal and resubmission also poses risk. Cards destined for regrading are handled multiple times—photographed, measured, potentially examined by the new grading company before official evaluation. Each handling increases the likelihood of new wear. This isn’t theoretical—graders regularly report receiving cards with fresh damage that clearly occurred between the previous grade and resubmission.
Financial Reality—Grade Downgrades and Slab Value Differences
The financial math rarely works in the cracker’s favor. A BGS 9 Base Set Mewtwo is worth substantially more than a BGS 8 or SGC 8. Depending on market conditions, the difference between a 9 and an 8 can be thousands of dollars. Even if you successfully crack the card without physical damage, if SGC grades it an 8, you’ve lost money on the grading fee, potentially lost value on the actual card due to the perceived “re-grade downgrade” in the market, and gained nothing except a different color slab. The comparison here is important: you’re trading certainty for speculation.
You own a BGS 9 with a known value in today’s market. SGC grading is uncertain—it costs $50 to $500+ depending on the service tier, takes weeks, and has no guarantee of matching or exceeding the 9. The math only works if you’re confident SGC will assign a 9.5 or 10. For most BGS 9s, the probability of jumping two or more grades is less than 10 percent. Even if the upside exists (say, the card is truly an SGC 10 and worth 50% more than the current BGS 9), you’re betting on a low-probability scenario while accepting a high-probability downside. This is a poor risk-reward trade-off.
Historical Examples and Market Data on Regrading Outcomes
Over the past decade, the Pokemon card market has accumulated enough data on regradings to show clear patterns. Collectors who cracked BGS 9s and submitted to SGC averaged downgrades or same-grade results far more often than upgrades. Online forums and price guides document these outcomes—for every success story (BGS 9 → SGC 10), there are multiple failures (BGS 9 → SGC 8 or 9). The variance is particularly pronounced with Mewtwo cards because they’re highly sought after, meaning more examples have been submitted for regrading, and the data is more reliable.
A practical warning: the Base Set Mewtwo is a classic target for this kind of speculation because it’s valuable and has been graded thousands of times. This high volume of existing data actually works against the prospective cracker—there are few surprises left. If a BGS 9 Base Set Mewtwo had a strong likelihood of being an SGC 10, collectors would have already discovered that pattern, and the BGS 9s of that type would be less common in circulation. The fact that BGS 9s still exist in the market in reasonable quantity suggests that SGC’s evaluation is unlikely to dramatically differ. This limitation—the market efficiency argument—applies especially strongly to hyper-popular, heavily graded cards like Base Set Mewtwo.
When Regrading Might Make Sense
There are narrow circumstances where cracking a BGS 9 for SGC submission could be justified. If you have compelling visual evidence that the card is undergraded—for instance, if a professional grader has privately assessed the card and suggested it’s stronger than the 9 indicates—then the risk might be worth taking. Additionally, if the market premium for SGC slabs over BGS slabs of the same grade exceeds the cost and risk of regrading, the math shifts. During certain market cycles, one service might have significantly higher demand than another.
Another scenario: if you’re building a complete SGC graded set of all Mewtwo cards, and you’re willing to accept a downgrade as the cost of standardizing your collection, then it’s a preference-driven decision rather than a financially optimized one. This is a legitimate reason, though it should be clearly acknowledged as aesthetic rather than value-maximizing. The key difference is intent—if you’re doing it for collection cohesion and accept the financial risk, that’s transparent. If you’re doing it hoping to gain value, you’re likely to be disappointed.
The Future of Grading Standards and What It Means for Regrading
The Pokemon card grading landscape is slowly shifting as the market matures. Both BGS and SGC have adjusted standards and introduced subgrades and tier variations (like BGS Black Label). These changes sometimes prompt collectors to consider regradings as new options become available. However, the fundamental risk remains unchanged—cards can be damaged, and standards are applied by human evaluators who may reach different conclusions.
Looking forward, the market will likely continue to see fewer high-reward regrades and more documented failures as the industry accumulates data. Serious collectors are increasingly cautious about cracking, and the market has priced this in. The takeaway is that the “easy money” of regrading has largely been extracted from the market. If you’re sitting on a BGS 9, the safest move is to hold it in its current slab and wait for market conditions to change, rather than introduce unnecessary risk through a crack and resubmission.
Conclusion
Cracking a BGS 9 Mewtwo to submit to SGC is a risky proposition that fails the basic financial test in most scenarios. The primary dangers—physical damage during cracking and grade downgrades at SGC—combine to create a situation where the downside far exceeds the upside. Unless you have specific, well-founded evidence that SGC will grade the card significantly higher, the safer and smarter move is to keep the BGS 9 as it is.
The only compelling reasons to crack are personal—you strongly prefer SGC slabs for your collection, or you have professional grading insight that suggests the card is undergraded. In all other cases, the certainty of owning a BGS 9 is more valuable than the speculation of pursuing an uncertain SGC grade. Hold your card, monitor the market, and only consider regrading if external circumstances change dramatically—such as a shift in market preference that significantly favors one service over another, or new grading options that become available.
Frequently Asked Questions
Can professional cracking services guarantee my card won’t be damaged?
No. While professional services minimize damage risk, they cannot eliminate it entirely. The process inherently involves stress to the card, and the risk of new wear is always present.
If my BGS 9 Mewtwo gets a BGS 10 from SGC, how much more is it worth?
The value increase varies by market conditions, but typically a jump from 9 to 10 can be 40 to 80 percent or more. However, the probability of this specific outcome is low, and you must factor in grading costs and downgrade risk.
Should I crack if I get a second opinion from another grader who says it’s a 10?
An informal assessment is not a guarantee. Only professional grading companies’ official grades count in the market. However, if multiple graders suggest the card is stronger, the risk calculation improves slightly—but it’s still not zero.
What’s the difference between cracking for SGC versus other services?
SGC and BGS are the two most relevant services for vintage Pokemon cards. Other services (PSA, CGC) have different market positions and grading standards. The same risks apply across all regrading scenarios.
Is a BGS 9.5 Mewtwo safer to crack than a BGS 9?
Slightly, because the upside potential is smaller but the card is already close to premium grades. However, a 9.5 is valuable as-is, and the risk is still substantial relative to the potential gain.
What should I do if I already cracked a BGS 9 Mewtwo?
If you haven’t submitted it yet, consider holding it in raw form and seeking multiple informal opinions. If it’s already been regraded lower, accept the outcome and treat it as a learning experience. The market will evaluate the card based on its current grade.
