Lightly Played Base Set holo cards are no longer broadly undervalued since 2023—the market has recognized their scarcity and pricing has corrected accordingly. While they haven’t skyrocketed like PSA 10 examples, LP cards now occupy a fair middle ground where sellers can’t count on getting deep discounts for condition alone. The market momentum since 2023 has shifted decisively toward scarcity-driven pricing, meaning which specific card you own matters far more than whether it’s raw or graded.
That said, LP Base Set holos remain comparatively accessible entry points for collectors who want iconic cards without premium-grade pricing. A Charizard in raw Near-Mint condition still averages around $458 on TCGPlayer as of 2025, making it roughly 30 times cheaper than a PSA 7 first edition version, which currently trades in the $13,000–$14,000 range. For collectors with realistic budgets, LP cards can still provide real value—just not the bargain-basement deals that were available three years ago.
Table of Contents
- What Changed in the Base Set Holo Market Since 2023?
- The Scarcity Signal Over Broad Undervaluation
- Specific Examples of Current LP Market Positioning
- How LP Cards Fit the Modern Collector’s Strategy
- The Grading Question and When LP Makes Economic Sense
- Which LP Cards Still Offer Genuine Value
- The Future of LP Base Set Holos as Investor Assets
- Conclusion
What Changed in the Base Set Holo Market Since 2023?
From 2023 through 2025, the market shifted from a broad “everything’s undervalued” mentality to a far more surgical approach based on population scarcity and card identity. Charizard, Blastoise, and Venusaur—the heavy hitters—saw accelerating demand, while mid-tier holos like Mewtwo and Alakazam found themselves in a strange middle position. Mewtwo raw Near-Mint moved from around $35 to $40–41, a modest climb that reflects how the market now treats abundant cards differently than genuinely scarce ones.
The clearest evidence is in shadowless variants and first-edition copies. A shadowless Alakazam graded PSA 10 sits at over $4,999, while the PSA 9 version averages $574—a steep cliff that tells you the market values perfection aggressively. Meanwhile, that same card in LP condition would sit somewhere south of $200, reflecting the discount collectors grant for visible wear. The lesson: condition matters more now than it did in 2023, which paradoxically means LP cards aren’t quite as overlooked as they once were.
The Scarcity Signal Over Broad Undervaluation
One of the most reliable ways to identify genuine undervaluation today is through PSA population reports, which reveal how many cards have been graded at each grade level. Cards with low population counts at high grades—meaning they’re genuinely scarce in top condition—tend to maintain or appreciate faster than cards with plentiful supply. Chansey, for example, has emerged as “the sleeper hit of 1st Edition base Set” precisely because it’s scarce in high grades despite lower broad appeal than legendary holos. Fewer people want Chansey than want Charizard, but fewer Chanseys exist in pristine form, which is why prices have held steady.
The warning here: you cannot assume an LP Base Set holo is undervalued just because it’s LP. You need to know the population data for that specific card at that specific edition (shadowless, 1st edition, unlimited). Venusaur is a legitimate case where PSA 10 examples remain genuinely scarce—the green borders show whitening easily, which limits the population of pristine copies—and that scarcity has driven real price appreciation. But an LP Mewtwo unlimited isn’t necessarily undervalued; it’s just fairly priced for what it is. The market now distinguishes between cards that are rare and cards that are merely old.
Specific Examples of Current LP Market Positioning
Let’s look at where actual transaction data takes us. Raw Mewtwo in Near-Mint condition moves at $40–41 on TCGPlayer; the same card in shadowless form graded PSA 9 averages around $190. That $150 gap is the premium for vintage condition authentication and the step up from LP to NM. For collectors considering the jump from LP to graded, that spread tells you exactly what grading might cost in terms of value gained.
A shadowless Blastoise in high grade sold privately in January 2025 for $60,000, a price point that feels almost disconnected from what an LP copy would fetch—probably somewhere in the $800–$1,200 range depending on exact condition and edition. This disconnect is important: flagship cards in LP remain relatively expensive because Charizard, Blastoise, and Venusaur drive collector demand at scale. But mid-tier holos in LP—Alakazam, Mewtwo, Chansey, even Gyarados—often show more genuine availability and lower price points. An LP Alakazam shadowless might sit around $80–$120, a far cry from the $574 PSA 9 version but still a meaningful investment. The market has essentially tiered itself: premium legendaries command premium even in LP, while supporting cast holos offer more accessible entry points.
How LP Cards Fit the Modern Collector’s Strategy
If you’re building a Base Set collection with a realistic budget, LP cards are still sensible acquisitions—they’re not as undervalued as 2022, but they’re not overpriced either. The PokeScope condition guide confirms that LP cards retain most of their value while selling at a slight discount compared to Near-Mint, positioning them as the sweet spot for collectors who prioritize condition without premium pricing. You get a card that looks respectable in a binder, shows honest wear but not abuse, and carries a price that doesn’t force you to choose between rent and Charizard. The tradeoff is visibility and authentication.
A raw LP card is difficult to price consistently across sellers; one person’s LP is another’s MP. Graded cards solve this problem but at the cost of slabbing fees and the $150–$400+ premium you pay for that authentication. For LP purchases specifically, buy from established dealers with detailed condition descriptions and good return policies. The democratization of the market means individual sellers with one great LP card next to someone trying to dump water-damaged commons at premium prices.
The Grading Question and When LP Makes Economic Sense
Many collectors wonder whether they should grade their LP Base Set holos, and the answer hinges entirely on what the card is. Grading a common holo in LP condition almost always costs more than you’ll recover; a shadowless Alakazam in LP might see a $20 bump from PSA authentication, nowhere near the $80–$150 grading fee. But a first-edition Charizard in LP? That card might justify grading if you suspect the actual grade could land in the 7–8 range rather than the 6 it looks like, because the jump from PSA 6 to PSA 7 can represent a $3,000–$5,000 difference on the secondary market.
The limitation here is that raw LP cards and graded LP cards (say, PSA 6–7 copies) are separate markets with different buyer bases. A collector seeking an authentic PSA 6 Charizard will pay around $3,000–$4,000; the same card raw in LP might sell for $300–$600 because the buyer assumes higher risk. So don’t think of grading as a neutral cosmetic choice. It’s a bet that the grade will be high enough to justify the fee, and that only works for cards scarce enough to command premiums.
Which LP Cards Still Offer Genuine Value
Venusaur continues to show strong performance after years of undervaluation, in part because green borders reveal whitening readily, making PSA 10 examples genuinely scarce. An LP first-edition Venusaur won’t match the appreciation trajectory of a graded PSA 10 copy, but it’s a card where the underlying scarcity—the fact that few high-grade examples exist—supports the value floor. Similarly, Chansey has transitioned from “throwaway holo” to recognized sleeper precisely because smart collectors noticed the population data.
These cards show how modern undervaluation isn’t about condition anymore; it’s about cards where collector psychology hasn’t caught up to scarcity. Gyarados and Dragonite represent another category worth monitoring: visually striking cards that command affection from casual collectors but haven’t yet attracted the investment crowd. You can acquire LP copies at relatively modest prices, then benefit if the collector base broadens. The risk is that they remain cult favorites rather than consensus grail cards, which means you’re holding inventory that might not appreciate.
The Future of LP Base Set Holos as Investor Assets
Looking ahead to 2026 and beyond, expect LP Base Set holos to remain fairly valued rather than cheap. The market has become sophisticated enough that arbitrary undervaluation is harder to find; if a card is scarce, people know it, and the prices reflect that. That doesn’t mean no LP cards offer value—it means the value is specific rather than category-wide.
You need to identify the actual scarce cards within LP condition, not just assume everything from 1999 is a bargain. The broader trend suggests that raw LP cards will serve a durable purpose as “authentic vintage without the authentication cost,” appealing to collectors who want honest representation without slabbing. Graded LP copies will continue to serve as the entry point to vintage pricing for expensive cards, offering buyers a way to acquire something authentic and affordable without a massive jump to PSA 8+ territory. In that context, LP Base Set holos aren’t undervalued—they’re appropriately valued for what they are.
Conclusion
Are LP Base Set holo cards still undervalued since 2023? No, not broadly. The market has recognized scarcity and corrected pricing across the category, meaning you can’t assume that an old card in LP condition is automatically a bargain. However, LP cards remain the most accessible way for normal collectors to own authentic Base Set holos, and specific LP copies—those backed by legitimate population scarcity like Venusaur or niche appeal like Chansey—still offer genuine value and potential appreciation.
Your next step is to research the PSA population data for the specific cards you want to acquire, then evaluate whether you’re buying authentic scarcity or just old common holos. Use TCGPlayer, the price guide, and specialized sources like Pokemon Pricing’s pop report guide to separate the truly scarce from the merely abundant. LP cards remain a legitimate collecting path if you know what you’re looking for—they just require more skill to evaluate than they did three years ago.
