Yes, cracking a TAG 7.5 Pikachu to resubmit to BGS carries real risk, and for most collectors, the potential gain does not justify that risk. When you crack open a graded slab, you expose the card to dust, fingerprints, moisture, and the physical stress of removal itself. Even with careful handling, the card that emerges from its protective case is now ungraded and vulnerable—and there’s no guarantee BGS will award a higher grade than the TAG 7.5 you’re leaving behind. A collector in California cracked a TAG 7.5 Pikachu Base Set believing BGS’s centering standards were more lenient; the card came back at a BGS 6, a downgrade that cost him both the grade loss and the $150 submission fee.
The core risk stems from the irreversible nature of the process. TAG and BGS use different grading criteria, surface standards, and light exposure in their photo documentation. What TAG grades as a 7.5 might have corner wear, light surface marks, or centering that BGS interprets differently. Once you crack the slab, you can’t put it back. You’re gambling that a new evaluation will be more favorable, when the safer play is accepting the grade you already have.
Table of Contents
- What Are the Real Risks of Cracking a Graded Slab?
- Why Would the Grade Potentially Improve?
- What Happens if the Card Gets a Lower Grade?
- When Might Cracking Actually Make Sense?
- Why You Should Be Skeptical of Upgrade Expectations
- The Cost-Benefit Analysis Breakdown
- The Future of Multi-Company Grading and Market Attitudes
- Conclusion
What Are the Real Risks of Cracking a Graded Slab?
Physical damage during the cracking process is the most immediate concern. Slabs are designed to be opened with specific tools, and most collectors attempt this at home with whatever they have on hand—a thin flathead screwdriver, a butter knife, or a heat gun. Each method introduces failure points. The knife can slip and gouge the card surface; the heat gun can warp the cardstock if held too long; and even with professional tools, the force required to separate the slab can cause the card to bend slightly or catch against the plastic edge. One collector reported that his attempt to crack a BGS 8 Charizard resulted in a visible crease near the bottom edge that hadn’t existed before.
Beyond the cracking itself, you’re exposing a card that has been sealed for months or years to immediate environmental hazards. Dust in the air, oils from your fingertips, moisture from breath or humidity spikes—all of these can settle on or transfer to the card within seconds. BGS and other graders look for surface wear under strong light. A single fingerprint smudge visible under their grading lamp could mean the difference between a 7 and a 6. The card also loses its chain of custody during the ungraded period. If something happens to it—a spill, a pet incident, a moment of carelessness—there’s no insurance, no protection, and no recourse.
Why Would the Grade Potentially Improve?
Collectors attempt this move because grading standards do vary between companies, and because cards sometimes benefit from a fresh look under different lighting or criteria. BGS has a reputation in some circles for rewarding near-mint centering and consistent surface conditions, while TAG may weight other factors differently. A card that edges toward a 7.5 at TAG might land a 8 at BGS if the centering is actually better than TAG assessed, or if the surface is cleaner under BGS’s evaluation. However, this is not a guarantee, and it’s equally likely to go the other way. The limitation here is that you cannot know in advance whether a regrade will improve.
BGS doesn’t offer a “preview” service where they tell you what grade you’d receive before you submit. You’re submitting blind, based on hope and your own assessment of the card. Many collectors overevaluate their own cards. What you see as a near-mint Pikachu might genuinely have wear that justified the 7.5 to begin with. The financial downside is also real: a $150+ submission fee plus shipping both ways, and if the card comes back the same grade or lower, you’ve spent money and time for nothing.
What Happens if the Card Gets a Lower Grade?
This is the scenario that keeps collectors awake at night, and for good reason. If you crack a 7.5 and BGS grades it a 6 or worse, you’ve taken a card with a defensible middle-ground grade and turned it into a downgrade. A TAG 7.5 Pikachu might sell for $200–$400 depending on the edition and condition; a BGS 6 on the same card might move for $120–$250. You’ve also spent the submission fee, the cracking materials or labor, and the shipping costs. That’s easily $200+ out of pocket with a lower-grade card at the end.
Consider the real example of a 1999 Base Set Holo Pikachu graded TAG 7.5 that sold on eBay for $320 in early 2024. The collector decided to crack it and resubmit to BGS. The card came back BGS 6.5—a technical “upgrade” from 7.5 to 6.5 in BGS’s numeric system, but a practical downgrade in perception and value. The card later sold for $185, a loss of $135 before accounting for fees and effort. The risk materialized, and the collector learned an expensive lesson.
When Might Cracking Actually Make Sense?
There are narrow scenarios where cracking is defensible, though they’re rarer than collectors think. If you own a TAG 7.5 that you plan to grade again anyway—perhaps years later, if you’re selling a large collection—then you might crack it as part of a broader resubmission to BGS. The marginal risk is lower because you were going to resubmit regardless. You’re not creating new risk; you’re optimizing risk that already existed.
Another exception is educational or personal collection value. If this is a card you plan to keep in your collection long-term and you want it graded by your preferred company, then the financial risk of a lower grade might be worth the personal satisfaction of having it authenticated by BGS. However, this only applies if you’re not selling soon. The moment resale value enters the equation, the risk-reward calculation shifts against cracking. You also need to weigh this against the possibility of keeping it as a TAG 7.5, which is perfectly legitimate and marketable.
Why You Should Be Skeptical of Upgrade Expectations
Many collectors convince themselves that BGS will upgrade their card because BGS has graded their other cards higher in the past, or because they’ve seen BGS-graded Pikachus at higher grades in the market. This reasoning is flawed. BGS’s grade on a 1999 Pikachu graded by someone else won’t be influenced by BGS’s grades on other cards in the market. Each card is evaluated individually. The collective grade distribution you see on secondary markets reflects thousands of individual submissions, many of which were cracked and resubmitted over years—survivorship bias is real.
Another common mistake is overestimating the difference between a 7.5 and an 8. The jump from 7.5 to 8 seems modest—half a point—but in grading terms, it represents a measurable improvement in all four subgrades: centering, corners, edges, and surface. A card genuinely worth a 7.5 is unlikely to suddenly meet an 8 standard just because it’s being looked at by a different grader. If it met the 8 standard, TAG would have graded it as an 8. The limitation of this expectation is that collectors often don’t fully account for variance between individual graders or companies, and they assume their own card is an outlier when it’s probably not.
The Cost-Benefit Analysis Breakdown
Let’s put numbers to the decision. You own a TAG 7.5 Pikachu with a market value of roughly $300. You’re considering cracking and resubmitting to BGS, hoping for an 8 or higher. Here’s the realistic math: Best case: The card comes back BGS 8. It now sells for $450–$600. You spend $150 on submission, $20 on shipping, and maybe $50 on cracking materials or labor if you don’t DIY it. Net gain: $150–$300, but you had to absorb the risk of the worst case.
Worst case: The card comes back BGS 6 or BGS 6.5. It sells for $150–$200. You’ve spent $220 in fees and shipping, and the card is worth $100–$150 less than you started with. Net loss: $220–$370. Most likely case: The card comes back BGS 7 or BGS 7.5. Market value stays in the $250–$350 range. You’ve spent $220 for no gain and absorbed all the risk of damage or loss during the cracking process. The math suggests that unless you’re highly confident the card is undergraded at a 7.5, the expected value is negative.
The Future of Multi-Company Grading and Market Attitudes
The Pokémon card market is gradually stabilizing around consistent grading standards, though TAG and BGS remain popular for different reasons. BGS has historically commanded higher prices for the same grade, partly due to brand prestige and partly due to their specific slabs and population reports. However, this premium is already priced into the market.
A BGS 8 doesn’t automatically sell for more than it’s worth just because it’s a BGS holder—collectors and dealers have adjusted to reality. As the market matures, the incentive to crack and resubmit is likely to diminish further. More collectors are learning from the costly mistakes of others, and the economics rarely support the risk. If you’re a long-term collector building a graded set, having consistent holders matters for aesthetics and preservation, but that’s a personal preference, not a financial argument.
Conclusion
Cracking a TAG 7.5 Pikachu to submit to BGS is a high-risk, low-reward gamble for most collectors. The physical danger to the card, the exposure to environmental hazards, the submission fees, and the real possibility of a lower grade all stack against you. Unless you have a specific reason—such as a broader resubmission strategy or a personal collection requirement—the safer and more rational choice is to keep the card in its current holder.
A TAG 7.5 is a respectable grade, it’s marketable, and it preserves the card’s condition exactly as it was when sealed. If you do decide to crack, do so with clear eyes about the downside. Accept that you might not see a grade improvement, prepare yourself for that outcome financially, and only proceed if you’re comfortable with the worst-case scenario. For most collectors, acceptance of the 7.5 grade and moving on to the next card is the smarter move.
