Most PSA population reports show that only a small percentage of fourth-print cards (commonly called “4th print” or similar within specific card sets) achieve a PSA 10, but the exact percentage varies widely by game, set, card design, and the definition of “4th print” being used. Sources that compile grading populations and submission/grade rate analytics (PSA population reports, third‑party aggregators like GemRate, and marketplace sales/grading‑service studies) are the best way to estimate the PSA 10 rate for any particular fourth‑print card or group of fourth‑print issues[2][1].
Why this question is complicated and what “4th print” usually means
– The phrase “4th print” is not a universal technical term across all trading card games; it commonly refers to the fourth printing of a particular card or the fourth run/print sheet within a set, but the exact meaning depends on the hobby (Pokémon, Magic: The Gathering, sports cards, etc.). Different communities label print runs differently (e.g., “1st edition/first print” vs. later reprints, or different factory runs), so before measuring PSA 10 percentages you must define which cards you include. Without that normalization you will mix cards with different production volumes, packaging, distribution channels, and handling histories, which massively changes PSA outcomes[1][2].
– PSA 10 means “Gem Mint” under PSA’s 10‑point scale and requires near‑perfect centering, sharp corners, clean edges, and flawless surfaces (or only imperceptible flaws under magnification), making PSA 10 relatively rare compared with lower grades[1].
Primary sources and tools to measure PSA 10 rates for fourth prints
– PSA Population Report: PSA publishes population counts by grade for specific card identifiers (POP reports). You can use those counts to compute the share of PSA 10 among all graded copies for a specific card number/printing. However, PSA only reports graded populations, not raw submission pools or all extant cards, so the calculated percentage represents the proportion of graded copies that received a 10, not the percent of all produced cards in existence that would be PSA 10 if graded[1].
– Third‑party analytics (GemRate, Universal Pop Report, other aggregators): these services compile daily grading trends, submission volumes, and long‑term grade distributions across services, and can help estimate recent grade rates and changing patterns across the hobby[2]. GemRate publishes daily grading totals and trend dashboards, which are useful for seeing how many items are graded overall and how grading volumes shift over time, though you still must drill down to specific card identifiers or print runs to estimate PSA 10 percentages[2].
– Marketplaces and sale records: completed sales of raw vs. graded high‑grade copies, and high‑volume auction histories, can provide triangulation for how frequently PSA 10 copies appear in the market relative to expectations. Marketplaces do not directly give population percentages, but they show scarcity and frequency of 10‑graded examples listed and sold.
How to calculate the PSA 10 percentage for fourth-print cards (recommended method)
1. Decide the exact scope: define “fourth print” precisely (same set and card number? same print sheet? same variant?). This is critical because differing definitions yield vastly different denominators.
2. Use PSA population counts for that exact card identifier and printing to get the number of PSA 10s and the total graded population for that identifier at PSA[1].
– Percentage of PSA 10 among graded copies = (PSA 10 count ÷ total PSA graded count for that identifier) × 100. This yields the share of graded copies that are PSA 10, not the share of all produced copies.
3. If you want the share among all produced copies (a different and more difficult metric), you must estimate the total number of that print produced or distributed (factory runs, print quantities published by the manufacturer, pack counts, production reports, or authoritative set mintage figures). Then compute (PSA 10 count ÷ estimated total produced) × 100. Note that produced counts are often unavailable or unofficial, so this estimate carries high uncertainty.
4. To improve accuracy, combine PSA data with submission‑rate correction: many collectors submit only high‑value or high‑quality cards for grading, which biases PSA populations upward (graded populations are not representative samples of all cards in circulation). If you can estimate submission bias from hobby surveys, grading company reports, or aggregator submission trend data, you can adjust percentages downward to estimate the true rarity among all copies in existence[2].
Important caveats and typical patterns
– Graded population bias: graded populations overrepresent higher‑quality examples because owners tend to submit nicer cards for grading; therefore, percentages computed only from PSA populations overestimate how common PSA 10 would be if every card were submitted to PSA[1][2].
– Print run differences: later prints or reprints can be produced with improved manufacturing or quality controls (or conversely, printed en masse with lower quality), so a fourth print can be easier or harder to find in PSA 10 than earlier prints depending on factory and cutting tolerances[1].
– Card type matters: large, flat cards or cards with glossy or holographic surfaces are more prone to surface defects and light scratches; small centering tolerances can penalize front/back centering more severely on some printings; therefore, PSA 10 rates vary by card size, foil usage, and trimming/centering norms[1].
– Time and handling: cards that were distributed in card packs decades ago were often handled more, increasing wear and reducing PSA 10 likelihood; modern reprints that were stored in mint packaging can have higher PSA 10 rates.
Examples of how numbers can differ (illustrative, not exhaustive)
– For a single collectible card that has a PSA POP report, you might find that PSA shows, for example, 250 total graded copies and 12 PSA 10s, which yields 4.8% PSA 10 among graded copies for that identifier (example calculation based on PSA population methodology)[1].
– Another card from the same set but different print might show 5 PSA 10s out of 500 graded, or 1.0% PSA 10 among graded copies. The difference can come from manufacturing variation, collector submission patterns, and the card’s popularity for grading.
– Aggregated across hundreds of card identifiers within a set, the average PSA 10 rate among graded copies might be in a low single-digit percentage, but that average masks high variance between individual cards and printings[2].
What authoritative sources say about PSA 10 rarity and grading behavior
– PSA explains that a PSA 10 is “Gem Mint” and lists the technical criteria used to determine the grade (centering, corners, edges, surface), and PSA population reports provide raw counts by grade for specific card identifiers[1].
– Industry analytics sites like GemRate collect grading volumes, trends, and can show whether PSA 10 rates are increasing or decreasing across TCG categories by tracking aggregate grade distributions and daily grading totals[2].
– Market and collectible‑industry commentary (including grading cost guides and hobby guides) emphasize that obtaining a PSA 10 is difficult and
