Do Pokémon Cards Beat Treasury Bills Over Five-Year Periods?
If you are wondering whether your Pokémon card collection could outpace safe investments like Treasury bills over five years, the short answer is it depends on the cards, the market timing, and some luck. Treasury bills, or T-bills, are short-term government bonds that pay a fixed interest rate with almost no risk, often used as a benchmark for low-risk returns. Over the past few decades, they have delivered steady but modest gains, typically around 2 to 4 percent per year depending on interest rates.
Pokémon cards fall into the world of collectibles, an alternative asset class similar to art or sports cards. These are not traditional investments with guaranteed returns. Their prices can swing wildly based on demand, rarity, condition, and trends like nostalgia booms or celebrity endorsements. For example, high-end cards from popular sets like Base Set or modern chase cards have seen huge spikes, but common cards often sit flat or drop.
To compare, think about inflation as a baseline. Since 1989, the cost of a pack of Topps baseball cards has risen about 7.76 percent per year, far outpacing the U.S. Consumer Price Index at 2.70 percent annually over the same stretch.[1] That pack jumped from 50 cents to around 6.99 dollars today, adjusted for inflation to about 1.30 dollars. Pokémon cards follow a similar pattern in the collectibles space, where top-tier items like graded rarities can deliver double-digit annual returns during hot markets. Sites like PriceCharting.com track Pokémon card values based on recent eBay sold listings, showing how a card’s worth hinges on grading from services like PSA, which adds cost but boosts resale value.[1]
Over five-year periods, T-bills shine in stability. From 2020 to 2025, with rising rates, they returned around 3 to 5 percent yearly on average, beating inflation without the hassle of storage or market watching. Pokémon cards? Some sealed booster boxes or vintage holographics beat that handily, with reports of 20 percent or higher compounded returns in bull runs fueled by online sales surges, like the record 416 million dollars spent on sports trading cards in one month.[1] But many collections underperform, especially ungraded bulk or cards bought at peaks.
The key difference is risk. T-bills never lose principal if held to maturity. Pokémon cards can tank if hype fades, like after the 2021 boom when some prices corrected 50 percent or more. Collectors often check eBay sold data or PriceCharting for real values, but even pros admit valuations are tough without grading fees.[1]
For five-year holds, rare Pokémon cards from sought-after sets have beaten T-bills in strong periods, acting like high-risk stocks. Everyday collectors might match inflation at best, but the thrill of the hunt and potential upside keep people stacking slabs. Track your own cards on pricing sites to see if yours are in the winner’s circle.
