Are Pokémon Cards More Scarce Than Modern Collectibles?
Pokémon cards show a split personality when it comes to scarcity. Vintage ones from the early days, like 1st Edition Base Set or Trophy cards, are truly rare because their supply is fixed and time has thinned them out. Modern Pokémon cards, though, face the opposite problem with massive printing runs that flood the market.[2]
Think about the numbers. The Pokémon Company prints around 9.7 to 10.2 billion cards each year. That is a huge volume, and it shows up in grading reports. PSA graded 15.3 million cards in 2024 alone, leading to thousands of perfect PSA 10 copies for popular modern chase cards. High population counts like 10,000 or more mean scarcity feels fake for these newer releases.[2]
Supply issues make things tricky right now. Store shelves stayed empty through most of 2025 because demand outpaced production. New sets sell out in seconds, and resellers grab everything, pushing resale prices sky high. The Pokémon Company says they print at max capacity, but even planned factory expansions by partner Millennium will not add much until 2027. Shortages could drag into 2026.[1]
Compare that to other modern collectibles like sports cards. Those often use manufactured rarity with limited print runs or special editions. Pokémon vintage cards win on real scarcity from low survival rates and history, much like the famous T206 Honus Wagner baseball card. But for fresh products, sports cards sometimes hold scarcity better because they avoid overprinting.[2]
Price trends tell the story too. Top Pokémon cards of 2025 smashed records, with the biggest hits costing more than ever. Older sets from eras like XY have doubled in value since late 2023, proving demand stays strong for scarcer stuff. Yet endless new prints create a risk of cheap “junk slab” graded cards that lose appeal over time.[3][5]
Production ramped up a lot from 2020 to 2025 compared to all prior years combined. That shift turned Pokémon into a high-volume game, unlike the organic rarity of its top vintage pieces. Collectors chasing long-term value stick to those fixed-supply icons over today’s flood of product.[2][4]
More cards on shelves could ease shortages and drop resale prices, making the hobby accessible again. Until then, true scarcity lives in the past for Pokémon.
