If you’re thinking about investing in Pokémon cards for the long haul, you need to know which cards are likely to disappoint. The Pokémon trading card game (TCG) has seen wild ups and downs, and while some cards become legendary investments, others turn into expensive mistakes. This article will walk you through the worst Pokémon cards for long-term investment, why they’re risky, and what you should watch out for—all in plain, easy-to-understand language.
## Why Some Pokémon Cards Are Bad Investments
Not every Pokémon card is a winner. Some cards lose value over time because too many were printed, the artwork isn’t special, or the Pokémon itself isn’t popular. Other cards might have been hyped up for no good reason, leading to a price bubble that eventually pops. If you’re looking to invest, you want to avoid cards that are overprinted, overhyped, or just plain boring to collectors.
## Cards That Have Dropped Hard Recently
Let’s look at some real examples of cards that have taken a nosedive in value. These are cards that people thought would be great investments, but reality had other plans.
– **Sylveon EX**: Down about 8% recently. While not a total disaster, it’s a sign that even popular Pokémon can lose value if the market cools off[1].
– **Mega Charizard EX**: This card has dropped a whopping 22%. Charizard is usually a safe bet, but even its cards can fall out of favor[1].
– **Charizard GX (Detective Pikachu set)**: This one took a “massive, massive decline.” Even Charizard isn’t immune to market crashes[1].
– **Magikarp**: Down 8%. Magikarp is actually one of the most expensive cards from the Scarlet & Violet era, but even it isn’t holding its value[1].
– **Gengar VMAX (Alternate Art, Fusion Strike)**: Down 6%. Alternate arts are usually sought after, but this one is slipping[1].
– **McDonald’s Pikachu**: This promo card crashed by 34–69%. The main reason? Way too many were graded as PSA 10 (the highest condition), so the market got flooded[1].
– **Pikachu (PSA 10)**: Down 53%. Again, too many high-grade copies mean the card isn’t rare enough to hold value[1].
These examples show that even cards from popular sets or featuring fan-favorite Pokémon can lose value if too many exist or if the hype dies down.
## Why Do These Cards Lose Value?
There are a few big reasons why some Pokémon cards are bad for long-term investment:
– **Overprinting**: If a card is printed in huge numbers, it’s not rare. Collectors want things that are hard to find. Cards from special sets or promos (like the McDonald’s Pikachu) often get printed in massive quantities, so they’re not actually rare[1].
– **Grading Flood**: When too many copies of a card get high grades from companies like PSA, the market gets flooded. A PSA 10 McDonald’s Pikachu isn’t special if there are thousands of them[1].
– **Hype Cycles**: Some cards get super popular for a short time, then everyone loses interest. This is called a “bubble.” When the bubble pops, prices crash[3].
– **Unpopular Pokémon**: Cards featuring less-loved Pokémon, or ones with boring artwork, just don’t attract collectors. No matter how rare they are, if no one wants them, the price won’t go up.
– **Bad Timing**: Buying at the peak of a hype cycle is a recipe for losing money. The 2021 Pokémon card boom saw many people buy high and sell low when the market cooled off[3].
## Types of Cards to Avoid
Here are some specific types of Pokémon cards that are usually bad for long-term investment:
– **Modern Promos**: Cards given away at stores, events, or in Happy Meals are often printed in huge numbers. They might spike in price briefly, but they rarely hold value[1].
– **Cards from Overprinted Sets**: If a set is printed to meet high demand, the cards inside won’t be rare. This is especially true for recent sets where Pokémon Company increased production to fight scalpers[2].
– **Cards with High PSA Populations**: Check how many copies of a card have been graded as PSA 10. If there are thousands, the card isn’t rare, no matter how nice it looks[1].
– **Cards from Dead Formats**: Some cards are only valuable because they’re good in the Pokémon TCG competitive scene. If the card rotates out of the standard format, its value can drop fast.
– **Cards Bought During Hype**: If everyone is talking about a card and the price is shooting up, be careful. This is often the worst time to buy, because the price could crash soon after[3].
## What About Scalpers and Market Manipulation?
Scalpers buy up stock to resell at higher prices, which can make some cards seem more valuable than they really are. However, Pokémon has started releasing “premium collection boxes” that are harder for scalpers to flip, which helps keep prices more stable for collectors[2]. Still, if you buy into a card that’s being manipulated by scalpers, you could end up holding the bag when the hype fades.
## The “Poke Apocalypse” and Market Bubbles
The Pokémon card market has gone through several bubbles, where prices skyrocket and then crash. The 2021 boom was followed by a big drop, and some experts are comparing the current market to that period[3]. If you’re investing, you need to be aware that these cycles happen, and timing is everything. Buying at the top of a bubble is a sure way to lose money.
## How to Invest Smarter
If you want to invest in Pokémon cards for the long term, here’s some simple advice:
– **Do Your Research**: Check how many copies of a card exist, especially high-grade ones. Use sites that track PSA populations.
– **Avoid Hype**: Don’t buy just because everyone else is. Wait for the excitement to die down before making a move.
– **Focus on Rarity**: Look for cards that are genuinely hard to find, not just ones that are popular right now.
– **Buy What You Like**: If you’re going to hold a card for years, make sure it’s something you actually enjoy. That way, even if the value drops, you still have something you like.
– **Don’t Stretch Your Budget**: Only invest money you can afford to lose. The market can be unpredictable, and even “safe” cards can lose value[3].
## Medical Considerations
If you’re spending a lot of time buying, selling, or thinking about Pokémon cards, it’s important to keep your mental health in check. According to the National Institute of Mental Health, compulsive collecting or investing can sometimes be a sign of underlying issues, especially if it causes stress, anxiety, or
